Current Aurora Prediction
Current Aurora Prediction Activtiy Level 6
Solar Wind
Velocity:434 km/s
Particle Density:3 protons/cm3
Interplanetary Magnetic Field
Btotal:5 nT
Bz:1 nT South
Current Aurora Prediction
Activity Level:6/10
Confidence:High
Current Weather:na
Updated: Oct 23 2014 128 UTC

Forecast is updated every 15 minutes.
Data is averaged over last 15 minutes.

Current Aurora Forecast

for Canada's North

The solar wind velocity is currently low at 434 km/s. While this is certainly not the only indicator for a spectacular aurora display it doesn't help to increase our chances. However, particle density impacting the earth is very high coming in at 3 protons/cm3. These relatively high density numbers will help to improve the overall spread of the aurora we see.

There is a significant southward pointing Bz value of 1 nT that is working to cancel out our Earth's magnetic field. As the southward Bz value increases this helps to open a 'door' in our magnetosphere allowing energy particles from the solar wind to more easily penetrate our atmosphere. This is a good indicator for the current availability of active aurora.

Aurora Activity Level 6/10: Aurora borealis activity is currently moderate to elevated. Weather permitting, good northern lights displays will be visible directly overhead from areas above magnetic 66th.

Extended 3-Day Activity Forecast Description (Oct 23 to Oct 25): The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on Oct 23 (23 Oct), unsettled to active levels on Oct 24 (24 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on Oct 25 (25 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one through three (23-25 Oct).

3-Day Aurora Forecast
Thursday (Oct 23)Friday (Oct 24)Saturday (Oct 25)
Aurora Forecast - Active: 15% - Minor Storm: 30% - Major Storm: 40%
Active aurora possible with excellent chance of minor auroral substorms and favorable conditions for major aurora activity.
Aurora Forecast - Active: 15% - Minor Storm: 35% - Major Storm: 40%
Active aurora possible with excellent chance of minor auroral substorms and favorable conditions for major aurora activity.
Aurora Forecast - Active: 15% - Minor Storm: 30% - Major Storm: 25%
Active aurora possible with excellent chance of minor auroral substorms and favorable conditions for major aurora activity.