Current Aurora Prediction
Current Aurora Prediction Activtiy Level 6
Solar Wind
Velocity:379 km/s
Particle Density:7 protons/cm3
Interplanetary Magnetic Field
Btotal:7 nT
Bz:1 nT South
Current Aurora Prediction
Activity Level:6/10
Confidence:High
Current Weather:na
Updated: Apr 17 2014 1155 UTC

Forecast is updated every 15 minutes.
Data is averaged over last 15 minutes.

Current Aurora Forecast

for Canada's North

The solar wind velocity is currently low at 379 km/s. While this is certainly not the only indicator for a spectacular aurora display it doesn't help to increase our chances. However, particle density impacting the earth is very high coming in at 7 protons/cm3. These relatively high density numbers will help to improve the overall spread of the aurora we see.

There is a significant southward pointing Bz value of 1 nT that is working to cancel out our Earth's magnetic field. As the southward Bz value increases this helps to open a 'door' in our magnetosphere allowing energy particles from the solar wind to more easily penetrate our atmosphere. This is a good indicator for the current availability of active aurora.

Aurora Activity Level 6/10: Aurora borealis activity is currently moderate to elevated. Weather permitting, good northern lights displays will be visible directly overhead from areas above magnetic 66th.

Extended 3-Day Activity Forecast Description (Apr 18 to Apr 20): The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on Apr 18 (18 Apr), quiet to active levels on Apr 19 (19 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on Apr 20 (20 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).

3-Day Aurora Forecast
Friday (Apr 18)Saturday (Apr 19)Sunday (Apr 20)
Aurora Forecast - Active: 15% - Minor Storm: 25% - Major Storm: 25%
Active aurora possible with good chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and favorable conditions for major aurora activity.
Aurora Forecast - Active: 10% - Minor Storm: 25% - Major Storm: 55%
Active aurora possible with good chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and favorable conditions for major aurora activity.
Aurora Forecast - Active: 10% - Minor Storm: 25% - Major Storm: 60%
Active aurora possible with good chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and favorable conditions for major aurora activity.