Current Aurora Prediction
Current Aurora Prediction Activtiy Level 7
Solar Wind
Velocity:389 km/s
Particle Density:4 protons/cm3
Interplanetary Magnetic Field
Btotal:6 nT
Bz:4 nT South
Current Aurora Prediction
Activity Level:7/10
Confidence:High
Current Weather:na
Updated: Oct 1 2014 756 UTC

Forecast is updated every 15 minutes.
Data is averaged over last 15 minutes.

Current Aurora Forecast

for Canada's North

The solar wind velocity is currently low at 389 km/s. While this is certainly not the only indicator for a spectacular aurora display it doesn't help to increase our chances. However, particle density impacting the earth is very high coming in at 4 protons/cm3. These relatively high density numbers will help to improve the overall spread of the aurora we see.

There is currently a very strong southward pointing Bz value of 4 nT that is cancelling out the protective effects our Earth's magnetic field. The increased southward Bz value forces open a 'door' in our magnetosphere letting energy particles from the solar wind easily penetrate our atmosphere. This is an excellent indicator for the current availability of active aurora.

Aurora Activity Level 7/10: Aurora borealis activity is currently elevated. Weather permitting, larger northern lights displays will be visible directly overhead from areas above magnetic 65th.

Extended 3-Day Activity Forecast Description (Oct 1 to Oct 3): The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (01 Oct, 02 Oct) and quiet levels on Oct 4 (03 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on Oct 2 (01 Oct) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on Oct 3 (02 Oct).

3-Day Aurora Forecast
Wednesday (Oct 1)Thursday (Oct 2)Friday (Oct 3)
Aurora Forecast - Active: 15% - Minor Storm: 25% - Major Storm: 35%
Active aurora possible with good chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and favorable conditions for major aurora activity.
Aurora Forecast - Active: 15% - Minor Storm: 25% - Major Storm: 25%
Active aurora possible with good chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and favorable conditions for major aurora activity.
Aurora Forecast - Active: 15% - Minor Storm: 20% - Major Storm: 20%
Active aurora possible with good chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and isolated major aurora substorms possible.