Current Aurora Prediction
Current Aurora Prediction Activtiy Level 4
Solar Wind
Velocity:381 km/s
Particle Density:13 protons/cm3
Interplanetary Magnetic Field
Btotal:15 nT
Bz:5 nT North
Current Aurora Prediction
Activity Level:4/10
Confidence:High
Current Weather:na
Updated: Dec 22 2014 515 UTC

Forecast is updated every 15 minutes.
Data is averaged over last 15 minutes.

Current Aurora Forecast

for Whitehorse, Yukon

The solar wind velocity is currently low at 381 km/s. While this is certainly not the only indicator for a spectacular aurora display it doesn't help to increase our chances. However, particle density impacting the earth is very high coming in at 13 protons/cm3. These relatively high density numbers will help to improve the overall spread of the aurora we see.

The Bz value of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is current acting in a northward direction at a value of 5 nT which doesn't help the flow of energy particles into our atmosphere. The interplanetary magnetic field can change significantly in a short period of time. A change in direction to a southward or negative value can increase the potential for active aurora by allowing more energy particles to enter our upper atmosphere. In this scenario we can expect to experience aurora sub-storms and will be reflected by a significant jump in the aurora activity level indicated on this page.

Aurora Activity Level 4/10: Aurora borealis activity is currently moderate to low. Weather permitting, northern lights displays will be visible directly overhead from Dawson City to Watson Lake and visible to the north from Whitehorse.

Extended 3-Day Activity Forecast Description (Dec 22 to Dec 24): The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on Dec 23 (22 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).

3-Day Aurora Forecast
Monday (Dec 22)Tuesday (Dec 23)Wednesday (Dec 24)
Aurora Forecast - Active: 10% - Minor Storm: 25% - Major Storm: 60%
Active aurora possible with good chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and favorable conditions for major aurora activity.
Aurora Forecast - Active: 20% - Minor Storm: 25% - Major Storm: 20%
Active aurora possible with good chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and isolated major aurora substorms possible.
Aurora Forecast - Active: 20% - Minor Storm: 25% - Major Storm: 20%
Active aurora possible with good chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and isolated major aurora substorms possible.