Current Aurora Prediction
Current Aurora Prediction Activtiy Level 5
Solar Wind
Velocity:388 km/s
Particle Density:2 protons/cm3
Interplanetary Magnetic Field
Btotal:7 nT
Bz:2 nT South
Current Aurora Prediction
Activity Level:5/10
Confidence:High
Current Weather:na
Updated: Nov 24 2014 113 UTC

Forecast is updated every 15 minutes.
Data is averaged over last 15 minutes.

Current Aurora Forecast

for Canada's North

The solar wind velocity is currently low at 388 km/s. While this is certainly not the only indicator for a spectacular aurora display it doesn't help to increase our chances. However, particle density impacting the earth is pretty respectable coming in at 2 protons/cm3. These higher density numbers can help improve the overall spread of the aurora we see.

There is a significant southward pointing Bz value of 2 nT that is working to cancel out our Earth's magnetic field. As the southward Bz value increases this helps to open a 'door' in our magnetosphere allowing energy particles from the solar wind to more easily penetrate our atmosphere. This is a good indicator for the current availability of active aurora.

Aurora Activity Level 5/10: Aurora borealis activity is currently moderate. Weather permitting, decent northern lights displays will be visible directly overhead from areas above magnetic 66th.

Extended 3-Day Activity Forecast Description (Nov 24 to Nov 26): The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on Nov 24 (24 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).

3-Day Aurora Forecast
Monday (Nov 24)Tuesday (Nov 25)Wednesday (Nov 26)
Aurora Forecast - Active: 15% - Minor Storm: 25% - Major Storm: 25%
Active aurora possible with good chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and favorable conditions for major aurora activity.
Aurora Forecast - Active: 15% - Minor Storm: 15% - Major Storm: 10%
Active aurora possible with slight chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and slight chance of isolated major auroral substorms.
Aurora Forecast - Active: 15% - Minor Storm: 15% - Major Storm: 10%
Active aurora possible with slight chance of isolated minor auroral substorms and slight chance of isolated major auroral substorms.